Spread your wings to find profit

The World Cup is the biggest betting event you will ever see. Not only are there 64 matches to bet on, but 30-50 markets on each match depending on which bookmaker you use, and then there are all the specials markets as bookies strive for a bit of variety to draw in new customers. It is these specials markets where punters should look hardest - since they are lower profile markets, bookmakers will spend less time in creating them and are more likely to have a different price to other firms.


When it comes to match markets, all bookmakers use odds monitoring services - there are not going to be huge variations between odds. Match markets are heavily based on intelligent statistical models which, in the long term, are very difficult to beat. But when bookmakers cast their nets far and wide in order to lure a few more customers, they will offer markets which can't be analysed scientifically - just by personal opinions, and this is where an advantage can sometimes be found.


Take a look at some of the special markets being offered:


Highest Scoring Day
Highest Scoring Premier League Team
Match with the First Red Card
Player to Commit the Most Fouls
Stadium with Most Goals
Top Ligue 1 Goalscorer
Total 0-0 Draws

Best Young Player

Team to Concede Most Goals

Total Number of Own Goals

Number of Missed Penalties
and many more...


To research these markets, you have to look harder than the person who set the odds. For these smaller markets, they may have spent as little as 20mins on the research. Think about what factors apply to these markets and where the oddsmaker might slip up. The favourite for the stadium with the most goals is likely to be either the busiest stadium or the one with a lopsided match like Brazil vs North Korea. But what will happen if two teams meet in the third group game, when they know they can't reach the next stage? Could it be a goalfest which catches the bookies out. Sometimes these markets can be fruitful for punters, but you have to be confident that you have found an edge over the guy who set the odds to begin with.


The key to profiting on major sporting events is to choose your targets well. There are so many opportunities to bet on, and bookmakers want you to bet where the percentage are most favourable for them. Don't fall for the trap - do your homework and capitalise on their weak points!

Comments or opinions expressed on this blog are those of the individual contributors only, and do not necessarily represent the views of FRANCE 24. The content on this blog is provided on an "as-is" basis. FRANCE 24 is not liable for any damages whatsoever arising out of the content or use of this blog.

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